Predictions from Seth Godin

Posted by
Mike Lyon
Date
 April 27, 2009
Comments
32 comments

For those of you who haven’t heard yet – Seth Godin will be presenting at PCBC this year. I am pretty amped about this. It is exciting to see this industry embrace his theory.

On that note – a recent post from Mr. Godin (may I call you Seth) highlights a few predictions:

Prediction: there will be no significant newspapers printed on newsprint in the US by 2012. So, you’ve got two and a half years before the newspaper industry is going to be doing something else with the news and the ads, or not be there at all. Does that change what you do today if you work in this business?

Prediction: 90% of your sales will come from word of mouth or digital promotion by 2011. How do you change what you’re doing today to be ready for that?

Prediction: The effort required to outsource a task involving the manipulation of data of any kind will continue to decrease until it will be faster and cheaper to outsource just about anything than it will be to use in-house talent. What will you do today to ensure your prosperity when that happens?

He makes this statement at the end, “It seems to me that if you know the old world is about to end, you’d run like crazy to master the new one.”

Now – Seth has been predicting for a while now – and so far, has a pretty good track record. In the home building industry, I think we can all learn from these predictions.

As I have been saying for the past year – I think there are builders that are finally in enough pain that changing is actually a better option than remaining the same.

I have a prediction as well, savvy new home building companies will be formed by younger principals that “get” internet marketing and the new consumer. They will find capital and buy up cheap lots becoming a competitive force in new markets – seriously challenging the larger builders. Do you have any predictions of your own?

  • Great post. Thanks for sharing. I’m retweeting right now.
    Please give us the highlights from PCBC as I won’t be there this year.

    • Carol – You bet – any predictions from you?

  • Great post. Thanks for sharing. I’m retweeting right now.
    Please give us the highlights from PCBC as I won’t be there this year.

    • Carol – You bet – any predictions from you?

  • Seth Godin and Mike Lyon are two of our favorite people! We’ve been reading Seth’s books for the last six months or so and we’re working to implement a lot of new ideas. It’s all about embracing the new and exciting. I’m glad to see the homebuilding industry is taking hold of his advice as well. It’s time for a big shift in the way we all do business!

    • Awesome Sara – I know you are doing great – I secret shopped you πŸ™‚ Keep up the fantastic work and follow-up. Any predictions for the home building industry.

  • Seth Godin and Mike Lyon are two of our favorite people! We’ve been reading Seth’s books for the last six months or so and we’re working to implement a lot of new ideas. It’s all about embracing the new and exciting. I’m glad to see the homebuilding industry is taking hold of his advice as well. It’s time for a big shift in the way we all do business!

    • Awesome Sara – I know you are doing great – I secret shopped you πŸ™‚ Keep up the fantastic work and follow-up. Any predictions for the home building industry.

  • Love Seth’s predictions – thanks for sharing!!

    Looking forward to your notes on PCBC and your webinar with Blue Tangerine!
    Go Mike!

    By the way – I totally agree with your prediction. Younger principals will start new companies focused on new ways of marketing and compete strongly! There will definitely be a shift in the way things are accomplished.

  • Love Seth’s predictions – thanks for sharing!!

    Looking forward to your notes on PCBC and your webinar with Blue Tangerine!
    Go Mike!

    By the way – I totally agree with your prediction. Younger principals will start new companies focused on new ways of marketing and compete strongly! There will definitely be a shift in the way things are accomplished.

  • Love Seth’s predictions – thanks for sharing!!

    Looking forward to your notes on PCBC and your webinar with Blue Tangerine!
    Go Mike!

    By the way – I totally agree with your prediction. Younger principals will start new companies focused on new ways of marketing and compete strongly! There will definitely be a shift in the way things are accomplished.

  • Mike – Great post. Seth Godin at PCBC? Somebody out there gets it! My prediction: More use of integrated building systems. Modular, panelized and SIPs homes are already perfecting their craft. Trusses are already a standard component, so what else can be created, delivered and installed as a ‘system?’ Forecasters say that by 2011 there will be flip and another great demand for new homes. We’ll have to change our ways to keep up. Systems are the ‘outsourcing’ for builders.

  • Mike – Great post. Seth Godin at PCBC? Somebody out there gets it! My prediction: More use of integrated building systems. Modular, panelized and SIPs homes are already perfecting their craft. Trusses are already a standard component, so what else can be created, delivered and installed as a ‘system?’ Forecasters say that by 2011 there will be flip and another great demand for new homes. We’ll have to change our ways to keep up. Systems are the ‘outsourcing’ for builders.

  • Well, since you asked… πŸ™‚ Successful builders of the future will sell the lifestyle and community, not so much the floorplans, bedrooms, etc. I want people that are proud and excited to live in my community. I want our homeowners to request bumper stickers that say, “I live in Timber Run and I’m proud of it!” I want to be like Apple – we rewind the commercials just to see what is new! The successful builder will find ways to market that the customer enjoys rather than dreads.

    By the way, thanks for the “essay prompt.” I’ve been thinking about my answer all day while I cleaned the house! πŸ™‚

  • Well, since you asked… πŸ™‚ Successful builders of the future will sell the lifestyle and community, not so much the floorplans, bedrooms, etc. I want people that are proud and excited to live in my community. I want our homeowners to request bumper stickers that say, “I live in Timber Run and I’m proud of it!” I want to be like Apple – we rewind the commercials just to see what is new! The successful builder will find ways to market that the customer enjoys rather than dreads.

    By the way, thanks for the “essay prompt.” I’ve been thinking about my answer all day while I cleaned the house! πŸ™‚

  • 3 Notes:
    Note 1: I was in homebuilding for over 7 years from errand boy to heading the sales and marketing. I now work for MediaSauce a company that organizes and develops strategies around social networks and the capabilities of the Internet. Having seen the power of connectivity through social networks like facebook and linkedIN as well as considering the need to keep prospective homebuyers informed of your business. Builders will start to understand the power of digital and social media. My prediction is that most builders will not create a strategic plan and end up hurting themselves through misuse of these online tools.

    Note 2: The idea of when the market will comeback is a very big question. But how it will come back is even more interesting. I agree with the prediction that “savvy new home building companies will be formed by younger principals that ‘get’ internet marketing and the new consumer”. I would expand to say that they will also leverage the power of their ability to connect beyond what most companies have done making themselves an advocate for homeowners as well as a source of political power in neighborhood development and associations.

    Note 3: Some builders also walk a tight rope on how they stay connected after the home is built. They don’t see the potential sales available because they are nervous about warranty and customer service issues. Any company that uses social media to help with the warranty and customer service issues, I predict will see a high return on their investment into these “new” online tools. As well as higher customer satisfaction.

    • Thanks for all the great feedback Colin! Great insights. Tonya and Scott – you as well. Appreciate everyone chiming in.

  • 3 Notes:
    Note 1: I was in homebuilding for over 7 years from errand boy to heading the sales and marketing. I now work for MediaSauce a company that organizes and develops strategies around social networks and the capabilities of the Internet. Having seen the power of connectivity through social networks like facebook and linkedIN as well as considering the need to keep prospective homebuyers informed of your business. Builders will start to understand the power of digital and social media. My prediction is that most builders will not create a strategic plan and end up hurting themselves through misuse of these online tools.

    Note 2: The idea of when the market will comeback is a very big question. But how it will come back is even more interesting. I agree with the prediction that “savvy new home building companies will be formed by younger principals that ‘get’ internet marketing and the new consumer”. I would expand to say that they will also leverage the power of their ability to connect beyond what most companies have done making themselves an advocate for homeowners as well as a source of political power in neighborhood development and associations.

    Note 3: Some builders also walk a tight rope on how they stay connected after the home is built. They don’t see the potential sales available because they are nervous about warranty and customer service issues. Any company that uses social media to help with the warranty and customer service issues, I predict will see a high return on their investment into these “new” online tools. As well as higher customer satisfaction.

    • Thanks for all the great feedback Colin! Great insights. Tonya and Scott – you as well. Appreciate everyone chiming in.

  • I totally agree with the first two statements. I am a little leary about the third one – I have worked in the IT world for fifteen years and have had my share of working with outsourced projects. The main problem with outsourcing is that the other company doesn’t necessarily understand your business, and makes “assumptions” that are not necessarily in-line with your business model. No matter how well one writes the parameters of the project – there’s always something not fully explained or interpreted correctly. It’s cheaper to keep data with people who understand the business, than to clean-up after someone makes an incorrect assumption about the data. Using someone else’s technology – maybe – allowing someone else to control/manipulate your company’s data – scary.

  • I totally agree with the first two statements. I am a little leary about the third one – I have worked in the IT world for fifteen years and have had my share of working with outsourced projects. The main problem with outsourcing is that the other company doesn’t necessarily understand your business, and makes “assumptions” that are not necessarily in-line with your business model. No matter how well one writes the parameters of the project – there’s always something not fully explained or interpreted correctly. It’s cheaper to keep data with people who understand the business, than to clean-up after someone makes an incorrect assumption about the data. Using someone else’s technology – maybe – allowing someone else to control/manipulate your company’s data – scary.

  • Great post Mike, and great information from Mr. (may I call you Seth) Godin. It is exciting for us on the ‘tech’ side of the housing industry for over a decade. New buzzwords internal for this industry: source/resource, access, distribution. Builders will learn to provide resources, access to qualified information and distribute it out in new and more profitable ways. Ultimately, builders will be more efficient and profitable than they were.

  • Great post Mike, and great information from Mr. (may I call you Seth) Godin. It is exciting for us on the ‘tech’ side of the housing industry for over a decade. New buzzwords internal for this industry: source/resource, access, distribution. Builders will learn to provide resources, access to qualified information and distribute it out in new and more profitable ways. Ultimately, builders will be more efficient and profitable than they were.

  • Great post Mike, and great information from Mr. (may I call you Seth) Godin. It is exciting for us on the ‘tech’ side of the housing industry for over a decade. New buzzwords internal for this industry: source/resource, access, distribution. Builders will learn to provide resources, access to qualified information and distribute it out in new and more profitable ways. Ultimately, builders will be more efficient and profitable than they were.

  • Predictions? I think the face of the on-site sales agent will look very different in the near future. It will no longer be acceptable to know your product and your direct competitor’s. Since Wall Street is now rewarding large builders for having LESS land on their books, we will see more infill developments and premium prices for good, finished lots. The notion of Transit Oriented Design will also play a huge role in our near future. The ‘new’ sales person will have to understand new home sales, the resale market, competition from the remodeling industry and FEAR (aka complacency). AND I think builders will have to seriously rethink their product and pricing strategies. It used to be that you could “update” your plans by changing the elevation from brick to stone and call it a day. People think and live differently now. Builders will have to adapt or they will die out- leaving room for those building companies who “get it.”

  • Predictions? I think the face of the on-site sales agent will look very different in the near future. It will no longer be acceptable to know your product and your direct competitor’s. Since Wall Street is now rewarding large builders for having LESS land on their books, we will see more infill developments and premium prices for good, finished lots. The notion of Transit Oriented Design will also play a huge role in our near future. The ‘new’ sales person will have to understand new home sales, the resale market, competition from the remodeling industry and FEAR (aka complacency). AND I think builders will have to seriously rethink their product and pricing strategies. It used to be that you could “update” your plans by changing the elevation from brick to stone and call it a day. People think and live differently now. Builders will have to adapt or they will die out- leaving room for those building companies who “get it.”